[英]When ets() is used, why R is not responding and crashes?
I am trying to find the best model to forecast the average monthly rainfall of a particular region.我试图找到最好的模型来预测特定地区的平均月降雨量。 So far I have used aa seasonal naive method and SARIMA.
到目前为止,我已经使用了季节性天真的方法和 SARIMA。 But when trying to run
ets()
, R crashes without producing an output.但是当尝试运行
ets()
,R 崩溃而不产生输出。
Data collected is for 20 years and the code i used is收集的数据是 20 年,我使用的代码是
Rainfall_ts <- ts(Rainfall[,2], start = c(1990,1), frequency = 12)
fit <- ets(Rainfall_ts)
(after running this line the R is not responding)`` fit <- ets(Rainfall_ts)
(运行此行后,R 没有响应)``
I tend to use fable and fabletools.我倾向于使用寓言和寓言工具。 The followup of forecast.
预测的后续。 Using package fpp3 loads all the needed packages for working with tsibbles, dplyr and date objects.
使用包 fpp3 加载处理 tsibbles、dplyr 和 date 对象所需的所有包。
I don't have any issues running any forecasts methods on your data.我对您的数据运行任何预测方法都没有任何问题。 I tried both fable and forecast and get the same outcomes.
我尝试了寓言和预测并得到相同的结果。 See code below.
请参阅下面的代码。
# load your data
df1 <- readxl::read_excel("datasets/Copy.xlsx")
colnames(df1) <- c("date", "rainfall")
library(fpp3)
fit <- df1 %>%
mutate(date = yearmonth(date)) %>%
as_tsibble() %>%
model(ets = ETS(rainfall))
report(fit)
Series: rainfall
Model: ETS(M,N,A)
Smoothing parameters:
alpha = 0.002516949
gamma = 0.0001065384
Initial states:
l[0] s[0] s[-1] s[-2] s[-3] s[-4] s[-5] s[-6] s[-7] s[-8] s[-9] s[-10]
86.7627 -77.53686 -57.90353 -18.72201 86.57944 150.0896 166.8125 60.45602 -39.25331 -55.94238 -68.85851 -70.52719
s[-11]
-75.19377
sigma^2: 0.1109
AIC AICc BIC
2797.766 2799.800 2850.708
Using forecast:使用预测:
library(forecast)
fit <- forecast::ets(ts(df1[, 2], frequency = 12))
fit
ETS(M,N,A)
Call:
forecast::ets(y = ts(df1[, 2], frequency = 12))
Smoothing parameters:
alpha = 0.0025
gamma = 1e-04
Initial states:
l = 86.7627
s = -77.5369 -57.9035 -18.722 86.5794 150.0896 166.8125
60.456 -39.2533 -55.9424 -68.8585 -70.5272 -75.1938
sigma: 0.333
AIC AICc BIC
2797.766 2799.800 2850.708
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