What Machine Learning algorithm would be appropriate?

Question

I am working on a predictor for learning the most likely period for grape harvesting, depending on weather and on the characteristics of grape, namely sugar level, Ph, acidity. I've got two datasets and I am thinking of how to merge them together: one is the pre-harvest analysis data of some Italian vineyards in the 2003-2013 period, the other is the weather on that decade. What I want to do is learning from my samples when to harvest, given a range for the optimal sugar level, Ph and acidity, and given a weather forecast. I thought that some Reinforcement Learning approach could work. Since the pre-harvest analysis are done about 5 times during the grape maturation period, I thought that those could be states I step in, while the weather conditions could be the "probabilities" of going from a state to another. Yet I am not sure of what algorithm would be the best as every state and every "probability" depends on several variables. I was told that Hidden Markov Model would work, but it seems to me that my problem doesn't fit the model perfectly. Do you have any suggestion? Thx in advance

Answer 1

This has nothing to do with the actual algorithm, but the problem you are going to run into here is that weather is extremely local. One vineyard can have completely different weather than another only a mile away from it, believe or not. If you put rain gauges at each vineyard, you will find this out. To get really good results you need to have a mini weather station at each vineyard. Absent this, your best option is to use only vineyards in the immediate vicinity of the weather measurements. For example, if your data is from an airport, only use vineyards right next to the airport.

Reinforcement learning is appropriate when you can control the action. It is like a monkey pushing buttons. You push a button and get shocked, so you don't push that button again. Here you have a passive data set and cannot conduct experimental actions, so reinforcement learning does not apply.

Here you have a complex set of uncontrolled inputs, the weather data, a controlled input (harvest time), and several output parameters, sugar etc. Given that data, you want to predict what harvest time to use for some future, unknown weather pattern.

In general, what you are doing is sensitivity analysis : trying to figure out how your factors affected the outcome that occurred. The tricky part is that the outcomes may be driven by some non-obvious pattern. For example, maybe 3 weeks of drought, followed by 2 weeks of heavy rain implies the best harvest will be 65 days hence, or something like that.

So, what you have to do is featurize the data to characterize it in possible likely ways, then do a sensitivity analysis. If the analysis has a strong correlation, then you have found a solution. If it does not, then you have to find a different way to featurize the data. For example, your featurization might be number of days with rain over 2 inches, or it might be most number of days without rain, or it might be total number of days with bright sunshine. Possibly multiple features might combine to make a solution. The options are limited only by your imagination.

Of course, as I was saying above, the fly in the ointment is that your weather data will only roughly approximate the real and actual weather at the particular vineyard, so there will be noise in the data, possibly so much noise as to make getting a good result impossible.

Why you actually don't care too much about the weather

Getting back to the data, having unreliable weather information is actually not a problem, because you actually don't care too much about the weather. The reason is two-fold. First of all, the question you are trying to answer is not when to harvest the grapes, it is whether to wait to harvest or not. The vintner can always measure the current sugar of the grapes. So, he just has to decide, "Should I harvest the grapes now with sugar X%, or should I wait and possibly get a better sugar Z% later? To answer this question the real data you need is not the weather, it is a series of sugar/acidity readings taken over time. What you want to predict is whether, given a situation, the grapes will get better or whether they will get worse.

Secondly, grapevines have an optimal amount of moisture they like. If the vine gets too dry, that is bad, if it gets too wet that is bad. You cannot predict how moist a vine is from the weather. Some soils hold moisture well, others are sandy. A sandy vineyard will require more rain than a clay vineyard to have the same moisture levels. Also, the vintner can water his vineyards, completely invalidating the rainfall pattern. Therefore, weather is pretty much a non-factor.

Answer 2

I agree with Tyler that from a feasible standpoint weather might harm your analysis. However, I think this is for you to test and find out!- there could be some interesting data that comes out of it.

I'm not sure exactly what your test is, but a simple way to start perhaps is to make this into a classification problem using svm (or even logistic regression since you want probabilities) and use all the data as the input for the algorithm- assuming you know which years were good harvest years or not. You could even test each variable individually and see how it effects your performance. I suggest you go this way if you can just because there's massive amounts of sources on the net and people here on SO that can help you tune your algo.

When you have a handle on this, I would, as you seem to have been suggested before, try the HMM- as it will tell you which day was probably the best for the harvest. This is where the weather might hurt, but you'll come to understand more about your data from the simpler experiments.

The think I've learned about machine learning is that while there are guidelines for when to choose which algorithm its not always set in stone and you can change your question slightly and try a new approach to the problem, depending how much freedom you have to play with the data. Good luck and have fun!