Like the title said, is there anyway to get an exact number from a Holt-winters forecast? For example, say I have a time-series object like this:
Date Total
6/1/2014 150
7/1/2014 219
8/1/2014 214
9/1/2014 47
10/1/2014 311
11/1/2014 198
12/1/2014 169
1/1/2015 253
2/1/2015 167
3/1/2015 262
4/1/2015 290
5/1/2015 319
6/1/2015 405
7/1/2015 395
8/1/2015 391
9/1/2015 345
10/1/2015 401
11/1/2015 390
12/1/2015 417
1/1/2016 375
2/1/2016 397
3/1/2016 802
4/1/2016 466
After storing it in variable hp, I used Holt Winters to make a forecast:
hp.ts <- ts(hp$Total, frequency = 12, start = c(2014,4))
hp.ts.hw <- HoltWinters(hp.ts)
library(forecast)
hp.ts.hw.fc <- forecast.HoltWinters(hp.ts.hw, h = 5)
plot(hp.ts.hw.fc)
However, what I need to know is how exactly the Total in 2016/05 is (predictly) going to be. Is there anyway to get the exact value?
By the way, I noticed that the blue (forecast) line is NOT connected to the black line. Is that normal? Or I should fix my code?
Thank you for reading.
I don't know why you went round around while you have called the library(forecast). Below provides direct answers for your questions:
hp.ts.hw <- hw(hp.ts)
hp.ts.hw.fc <- forecast(hp.ts.hw, h = 5)
plot(hp.ts.hw.fc)
hp.ts.hw.fc
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
Mar 2016 546.5311 448.2997 644.7624 396.2992 696.7630
Apr 2016 623.7030 525.4716 721.9344 473.4711 773.9349
May 2016 671.8989 573.6675 770.1303 521.6670 822.1309
Jun 2016 667.3722 569.1408 765.6036 517.1402 817.6041
Jul 2016 500.0710 401.8396 598.3024 349.8390 650.3030
I'm not sure if I understood your doubt. But you can get the forecasted value by:
hp.ts.hw.fc$mean
You can use accuracy function to measure how good is your results.
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