使用 Python 进行线性回归

Question

I am studying "Building Machine Learning System With Python (2nd)". I have a silly doubt in very first chapters' answer part. According to the book and based on my observation I always get 2nd order polynomial as the best fitting curve. whenever I train my system with training dataset, I get different Test error for different Polynomial Function. Thus my parameters of the equation also differs. But surprisingly, I get approximately same answer every time in the range 9.19-9.99 . My final hypothesis function each time have different parameters but I get approximately same answer. Can anyone tell me the reason behind it? [FYI:I am finding answer for y=100000] I am sharing the code sample and the output of each iteration.

Here are the errors and the corresponding answers with it:

• https://i.stack.imgur.com/alVzU.png
• https://i.stack.imgur.com/JVGSm.png
• https://i.stack.imgur.com/RB53X.png

Thanks in advance!

def error(f, x, y):
    return sp.sum((f(x)-y)**2)
import scipy as sp
import matplotlib.pyplot as mp
data=sp.genfromtxt("web_traffic.tsv",delimiter="\t")
x=data[:,0]
y=data[:,1]
x=x[~sp.isnan(y)]
y=y[~sp.isnan(y)]
mp.scatter(x,y,s=10)
mp.title("web traffic over the month")
mp.xlabel("week")
mp.ylabel("hits/hour")
mp.xticks([w*24*7 for w in range(10)],["week %i"%i for i in range(10)])
mp.autoscale(enable=True,tight=True)
mp.grid(color='b',linestyle='-',linewidth=1)
mp.show()
infletion=int(3.5*7*24)
xa=x[infletion:]
ya=y[infletion:]
f1=sp.poly1d(sp.polyfit(xa,ya,1))
f2=sp.poly1d(sp.polyfit(xa,ya,2))
f3=sp.poly1d(sp.polyfit(xa,ya,3))
print(error(f1,xa,ya))
print(error(f2,xa,ya))
print(error(f3,xa,ya))
fx=sp.linspace(0,xa[-1],1000)
mp.plot(fx,f1(fx),linewidth=1)
mp.plot(fx,f2(fx),linewidth=2)
mp.plot(fx,f3(fx),linewidth=3)
frac=0.3
partition=int(frac*len(xa))
shuffled=sp.random.permutation(list(range(len(xa))))
test=sorted(shuffled[:partition])
train=sorted(shuffled[partition:])
fbt1=sp.poly1d(sp.polyfit(xa[train],ya[train],1))
fbt2=sp.poly1d(sp.polyfit(xa[train],ya[train],2))
fbt3=sp.poly1d(sp.polyfit(xa[train],ya[train],3))
fbt4=sp.poly1d(sp.polyfit(xa[train],ya[train],4))
print ("error in fbt1:%f"%error(fbt1,xa[test],ya[test]))
print ("error in fbt2:%f"%error(fbt2,xa[test],ya[test]))
print ("error in fbt3:%f"%error(fbt3,xa[test],ya[test]))
from scipy.optimize import fsolve
print (fbt2)
print (fbt2-100000)
maxreach=fsolve(fbt2-100000,x0=800)/(7*24)
print ("ans:%f"%maxreach)

Answer 1

Don't do this like that. Linear regression is more "up to you" than you think.

Start by getting the slope of the line, (#1) average((f(x2)-f(x))/(x2-x))

Then use that answer as M to (#2) average(f(x)-M*x).

Now you have (#1) and (#2) as your regression.

For any type of regression similar to this ex, Polynomial,

you need to subtract the A-Factor (First Factor), by using the n super-delta of f(x) with every one with respect to delta(x). Ex. delta(ax^2+bx+c)/delta(x) gives you a equation with a and b, and from there it works. When doing this take the average every time if there is more entries. Do It like a window on a paper sliding down. Ex. You select entries 1-10, then 2-11,3-12 etc for some crazy awesome regression. You may want to create a matrix API. The best way to handle it, is first create a API that takes a row and a column out first. THEN you fool around with that to automate it. The Ratios of the in-out entries left in only 2 cols, is averaged and is the solution to the coefficient. Then Make a program to take rows out but for example leave row 1 & row 5 (OUTPUT), then row 2,row 5... row 4 and row 5. I wouldn't recommend python for coding this. I recommend C programming, because It prevents you from making dirty arrays that you don't remember. Systems-Theory you need to understand. You must create system-by-system. It is insane to code matrices without building automated sub-systems that are carefully tested. I failed until I worked on it in C, so I already made a 1 time shrinking function that is carefully tested, then built systems to automate getting 1 coefficient, tested that, then automated the repetition of that program to solve it. You won't understand any of this by using python or similar shortcuts. You use them after you realize what they really are. That's how I learned. I still am like how did I code that? I still am amazed. Problem is though, it's unstable above 4x4 (actually 4x5) matrices.

Good Luck, Misha Taylor