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使用一個分組變量在 R 中進行預測

[英]Forecasting in R using one grouping variable

 原文  2022-01-04 12:28:40  8   1    r/ dplyr/ forecasting/ arima/ fable-r

問題描述

我正在嘗試使用一個分組變量“實際交付位置”來預測年月數據。 我正在使用來自 Fable package 的 ARIMA 進行預測，但是當我運行 model 時出現以下錯誤

錯誤消息：ARIMA(Sales.Units, stepwise = F, approximation = F) [3] 遇到 3 個錯誤（1 個唯一）。數據包含隱含的時間間隔。 如果需要，您應該檢查您的數據並使用tsibble::fill_gaps()將隱式間隙轉換為顯式缺失值。

我已將缺失值替換為零，並使用實際交付位置變量執行 group_by。

你能幫忙解決這個問題嗎？

library(tidyverse)
library(tibbletime)
library(lubridate)
library(norm)
library(tibble)
library(tsibble)
library(fpp3)

Global.df<-structure(list(Actual.Delivery.Location = c("A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", 
"A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A324", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", 
"A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A482", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", 
"A999", "A999", "A999", "A999", "A999"), YearMonth = c("Jan 2016", 
"Feb 2016", "Mar 2016", "Apr 2016", "May 2016", "Jun 2016", "Jul 2016", 
"Aug 2016", "Sep 2016", "Oct 2016", "Nov 2016", "Dec 2016", "Jan 2017", 
"Feb 2017", "Mar 2017", "Apr 2017", "May 2017", "Jun 2017", "Jul 2017", 
"Aug 2017", "Sep 2017", "Oct 2017", "Nov 2017", "Dec 2017", "Jan 2018", 
"Feb 2018", "Mar 2018", "Apr 2018", "May 2018", "Jun 2018", "Jul 2018", 
"Aug 2018", "Sep 2018", "Oct 2018", "Nov 2018", "Dec 2018", "Jan 2019", 
"Feb 2019", "Mar 2019", "Apr 2019", "May 2019", "Jun 2019", "Jul 2019", 
"Aug 2019", "Sep 2019", "Oct 2019", "Nov 2019", "Dec 2019", "Jan 2020", 
"Feb 2020", "Mar 2020", "Apr 2020", "May 2020", "Jun 2020", "Jul 2020", 
"Aug 2020", "Sep 2020", "Oct 2020", "Nov 2020", "Dec 2020", "Jan 2021", 
"Feb 2021", "Mar 2021", "Apr 2021", "May 2021", "Jun 2021", "Jul 2021", 
"Aug 2021", "Sep 2021", "Oct 2021", "Nov 2021", "Dec 2021", "Jan 2016", 
"Feb 2016", "Mar 2016", "Apr 2016", "May 2016", "Jun 2016", "Jul 2016", 
"Aug 2016", "Sep 2016", "Oct 2016", "Nov 2016", "Dec 2016", "Jan 2017", 
"Feb 2017", "Mar 2017", "Apr 2017", "May 2017", "Jun 2017", "Jul 2017", 
"Aug 2017", "Sep 2017", "Oct 2017", "Nov 2017", "Dec 2017", "Jan 2018", 
"Feb 2018", "Mar 2018", "Apr 2018", "May 2018", "Jun 2018", "Jul 2018", 
"Aug 2018", "Sep 2018", "Oct 2018", "Nov 2018", "Dec 2018", "Jan 2019", 
"Feb 2019", "Mar 2019", "Apr 2019", "May 2019", "Jun 2019", "Jul 2019", 
"Aug 2019", "Sep 2019", "Oct 2019", "Nov 2019", "Dec 2019", "Jan 2020", 
"Feb 2020", "Mar 2020", "Apr 2020", "May 2020", "Jun 2020", "Jul 2020", 
"Aug 2020", "Sep 2020", "Oct 2020", "Nov 2020", "Dec 2020", "Jan 2021", 
"Feb 2021", "Mar 2021", "Apr 2021", "May 2021", "Jun 2021", "Jul 2021", 
"Aug 2021", "Sep 2021", "Oct 2021", "Nov 2021", "Dec 2021", "Jan 2016", 
"Feb 2016", "Mar 2016", "Apr 2016", "May 2016", "Jun 2016", "Jul 2016", 
"Aug 2016", "Sep 2016", "Oct 2016", "Nov 2016", "Dec 2016", "Jan 2017", 
"Feb 2017", "Mar 2017", "Apr 2017", "May 2017", "Jun 2017", "Jul 2017", 
"Aug 2017", "Sep 2017", "Oct 2017", "Nov 2017", "Dec 2017", "Jan 2018", 
"Feb 2018", "Mar 2018", "Apr 2018", "May 2018", "Jun 2018", "Jul 2018", 
"Aug 2018", "Sep 2018", "Oct 2018", "Nov 2018", "Dec 2018", "Jan 2019", 
"Feb 2019", "Mar 2019", "Apr 2019", "May 2019", "Jun 2019", "Jul 2019", 
"Aug 2019", "Sep 2019", "Oct 2019", "Nov 2019", "Dec 2019", "Jan 2020", 
"Feb 2020", "Mar 2020", "Apr 2020", "May 2020", "Jun 2020", "Jul 2020", 
"Aug 2020", "Sep 2020", "Oct 2020", "Nov 2020", "Dec 2020", "Jan 2021", 
"Feb 2021", "Mar 2021", "Apr 2021", "May 2021", "Jun 2021", "Jul 2021", 
"Aug 2021", "Sep 2021", "Oct 2021", "Nov 2021", "Dec 2021"), 
    Sales.Units = c(2422, 1176, 2398, 2540, 3608, 4915, 3267, 
    4315, 2112, 3106, 1868, 2867, 2884, 555, 3208, 1732, 1180, 
    5911, 4082, 2992, 2173, 1974, 1665, 1997, 1989, 1382, 2074, 
    1433, 2537, 1869, 2106, 1923, 3410, 2035, 1174, 1462, 2372, 
    982, 4115, 2370, 3332, 983, 816, 2008, 3107, 4657, 1208, 
    1569, 1459, 1835, 1952, 337, 677, 4876, 2966, 2718, 6459, 
    1384, 1082, 2533, 1568, 1055, 1948, 1332, 2324, 3935, 2340, 
    1153, 1136, 491, 736, 802, 1303, 917, 683, 47, 847, 876, 
    196, 124, 620, 334, 114, 363, 592, 348, 842, 139, 747, 2242, 
    1653, 831, 105, 832, 400, 1026, 1053, 932, 998, 188, 334, 
    1418, 609, 300, 1097, 135, 549, 339, 1506, 1293, 76, 261, 
    97, 92, 678, 44, 697, 535, 203, 21, 135, 132, 259, 48, NA, 
    NA, 986, 985, 1340, 541, 211, 1018, 1810, 1028, 443, 1960, 
    114, 1342, 740, 73, 1512, 137, 169, 2308, 8324, 9000, 10006, 
    11553, 13637, 21684, 17027, 14328, 13915, 3828, 7620, 9405, 
    12086, 5963, 28456, 7933, 10039, 19783, 13488, 14828, 18563, 
    8864, 9995, 12951, 11156, 13203, 19383, 15198, 18466, 24225, 
    12761, 13580, 10387, 7638, 5584, 11093, 10959, 5781, 22894, 
    19559, 11428, 19135, 14153, 13864, 10961, 13355, 9454, 16976, 
    4837, 1077, 13443, 23364, 3667, 7469, 9465, 14030, 25455, 
    21555, 12228, 21354, 11829, 11518, 29550, 20653, 8949, 35923, 
    9466, 22290, 18310, 11170, 10732, 17269)), row.names = c(NA, 
216L), class = "data.frame")

Global.df[is.na(Global.df)]<-0
Global.df$YearMonth<-lubridate::my(Global.df$YearMonth)
Global.df <- as_tibble(Global.df)

Global.df<- Global.df %>%
  group_by(Actual.Delivery.Location) %>%
  as_tsibble(key = Actual.Delivery.Location,
             index = YearMonth)

Fit.Global.df<- Global.df %>%
  group_by(Actual.Delivery.Location) %>%
  model(ARIMA(Sales.Units,stepwise = F, approximation = F))

1 個解決方案

解決方案1
 0  2022-01-04 13:28:48

我已經想通了。我必須使用 yearmonth function 轉換年份月份，而不是將其轉換為日期。

Global.df <- Global.df %>% 
  mutate(Month = yearmonth(YearMonth))

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